Monday, February 16, 2015

Crime Rates in Chicago Plummet (After IL Implements Concealed Carry?)

 Ben Swann

According to The Washington Timesnow that citizens in Chicago can legally defend themselves, the city’s historically disastrous crime rates have begun to plummet precipitously. Police department crime statistics note that, in the first quarter of 2014, the homicide rate in Chicago has dropped to a 56-year low. In 2014 so far, burglaries are down by 20%, auto theft rates have dropped by 26%, and robberies leading to arrests are down by 20%.

The Chicago Police Department wasted no time in declaring victory and claiming credit for the drop in crime, but Illinois State Rifle Association executive director Richard Pearson told The Washington Times, “The police department hasn’t changed a single tactic — they haven’t announced a shift in policy or of course — and yet you have these incredible numbers.” He feels that the drop in crime can at least in part be attributed to the implementation of concealed carry in Illinois. Said Pearson, “It isn’t any coincidence crime rates started to go down when concealed carry was permitted. Just the idea that the criminals don’t know who’s armed and who isn’t has a deterrence effect.”

It never fails.  When the Washington Times reports it you can be sure there's a major spin.  How, for example, could the decline in burglaries be explained by the increase in concealed carry? 

17 comments:

  1. Mr. Pearson makes a valid point. If the Chicago PD hasn't made any changes to their procedures, which seems to be the norm over the long term, how exactly can they make a claim that things all of a sudden started working?
    Considering that permits have only been in the possession of permit holders for less than a year, I personally think its a bit early to be making claims such as this. While I certainly wont complain about any drop in crime in what is the second most violent metropolis trailing the gun control nirvana known as DC, I think we'll get a better indication at about the five year mark.
    Perhaps by then, the powers that be in Chicago will have been able to hire a skilled fiction writer that can attempt to sell the public on how the police department's unchanging policies brought about the resulting weather change in violence in spite of citizens now being permitted to defend themselves.
    "but Illinois State Rifle Association executive director Richard Pearson told The Washington Times, “The police department hasn’t changed a single tactic — they haven’t announced a shift in policy or of course — and yet you have these incredible numbers.” He feels that the drop in crime can at least in part be attributed to the implementation of concealed carry in Illinois. Said Pearson, “It isn’t any coincidence crime rates started to go down when concealed carry was permitted."

    "Though it is too early to conclusively determine exactly what is causing the reduction in crime, the shift in policy favoring gun rights appears to correlate with a sharp drop in Chicago crime rates."

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    1. I agree on both counts, the cops cannot take credit and it's too early to credit concealed carry.

      But, what do you think about my pointing out that burglaries went down like all other crime? Wouldn't that indicate that the decreases cannot be due to concealed carry?

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    2. Please prove to us SS that concealed carry, or open carry effected the crime rate. You love to spout that, but never give any evidence.

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    3. "But, what do you think about my pointing out that burglaries went down like all other crime? Wouldn't that indicate that the decreases cannot be due to concealed carry?"

      I would be willing to go so far as allowing that it isn't entirely the cause of the drop in burglaries. For the effect on burglaries, again, Chicago has had a long history of prohibition of handguns, so there will be a bit of inertia involved in any effects there also.
      The McDonald decision which threw out the city's ban on handgun ownership was in 2010. Look at that. We're coming up on the five year anniversary of McDonald. Something which would result in an increase in guns in the home, and we are now seeing decreases in burglaries. Coincidence? No? An interesting thought nonetheless.
      Another thing to keep in mind is that Chicago has been a long term perfect storm of violent crime and they often get various special exceptions for being "special" when it comes to legislation being passed. So another question might be, do maybe these exceptions being allowed aggravate or improve the violence issues?

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    4. thanks SS, I knew you had no proof.

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  2. Because Chicago's firearm ownership ban and the state of Illinois concealed carry ban ended at nearly the same time, so now burglars don't believe that they can just break into any home they want at any time.

    Burglars now fear getting shot as they should.

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    1. "Nearly the same time?" Really?

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    2. The ban on ownership thru restructive over regulation ended in Feb of 2014, in april of 2014 the first of 23,000 concealed carry licences were issued.

      Yes I would say that at nearly the same time laws were changed that give criminals a reason to fear being shot.

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  3. A logical line of thought is, concealed carry is now legal, peopled go purchase firearms now that they can carry concealed, more firearms owned means more in homes which means a greater chance of being shot while burglarizing a home. That being said, as SSG stated it is a bit early to be making the statements in the article though I will say, from my experience talking to criminals, many do say that they are less apt to attack the people or burglarize the homes they believe have a good chance of having guns. And yes this is just my personal anecdotal experience and can't necessarily be applied universally, but it does offer support to the idea.

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    1. We've also heard the opposite, that burglars choose homes with guns in order to steal them.

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    2. I understand your point but indirectly concealed carry helps here as well. With concealed carry the owner is more likely to be carrying the gun outside the home and most burglaries occur when the home is unoccupied, so logically allowing concealed carry outisde the home, prevents the gun from being in the home when the burglary occurs. And while this isn't gaurenteed its a reasonable idea.

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    3. I don't think so, Mike. How many concealed carry guys own only one single gun?

      Guns do more harm than good, as does concealed carry. Increases in both inevitably lead to increases in stolen guns especially since you guys aren't compelled to lock your guns up at home. Increases also lead to more guns being sold withough background checks, some of which go to criminals and the mentally ill.

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    4. I speak only for myself but I do know several individuals whose carry gun is the only gun they own. While I can't speak for the people in Chicago it does happen and while only having the single gun would not be my preference there are those who do it for whatever reason.

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  4. And you'll also notice it acknowledges a drop in several areas, not just burglaries.

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    1. Yes, that's my point. Burglars are not affected by concealed carry, therefore the decreases cannot be due to it.

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    2. While you are correct that the burglar isn't direectly affect d by concealed carry, the legalizing of concealed carry does increase the chance of a homeowner having a gun so it increases the likelihood of a burglar facing an armed homeowner should they decide to burglarize the home when it is occupied, and decreases the likelihood that the gun will be in the home as opposed to concealed on the person of the homeowner should the burglary be attempted when the home is not occupied.

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  5. Maybe Chicago's plummeting crime rates should be credited to "gun control" hero Mayor Rahm Emanuel's secret army of torturers.

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